Trend Study: The console wars

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With the console wars coming to full force next month with the release of the PS3 and the Wii, we’re all anxious to know who will win this console war, or if winning really matters. Using the amazing tools of the interwebs, in this case Google Trends, and some very strong voodoo we will attempt to look beyond the murky waters and predict a winner.

So equip your chainsaw bayonet and katanas, we hear there are giant crabs in these waters.

For those of you who dont know, Google Trends is another service by friendly big brother Google that lets you compare keywords in terms of how searched are they. Lets start by looking at the current situation.

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Ok this graph works more like a timeline, point A is E3 2005, all 3 systems where announced. The Xbox 360 and the PS3 with almost equal amounts of hype with the PS3 enjoying a marginal advantage. But what about the Wii? This was the Nintendo Revolution back then, hell many were still calling it the Nintendo On.

Point B was the Xbox 360 launch, sold outs everywhere and people making big cash on Ebay. The PS3 suffers an echo of the hype but for the most part is unaffected and remains the same. Later at E3 2006 point F happens, the Wii is revealed, the PS3 gets the same boost as the Wii. The Xbox 360 remains unaffected and superior.

For the moment the Xbox 360 maintains a healthy lead on the buzz department, you know, actually being on the market tends to do that. Now this is a list of the top searching countries.

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The advantage of the Xbox 360 is even more evident here. With the PS3 having an advantage over the Wii on every country, with Mexico being the most balanced of all countries. Ok so for now lets leave the Xbox 360 alone and take a detailed look at the two incoming giants in detail.

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Again, the difference seems minimal until you look at the biggest searchers where the Wii suffers from a big disadvantage in buzz. So right now we could predict the following:

  1. Xbox 360
  2. PS3
  3. Nintendo Wii

But wait, where have we seen that before?

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Oh yes, the PSP also has a huge buzz lead over the DS, we all know how that turned out right? Hmm, but Nahu, could that mean buzz doesn’t equal sales? Well, lets see!

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Why yes, apparently people love to talk about things they’re not likely going to buy, or maybe talk a lot about what they do own. So who’s going to win?

Well as difficult as it seems we can draw out certain conclusions:

  • Sony’s buzz is full of fluff.
  • Nintendo fans are rather quiet.
  • Sony fans love to talk.
  • People love the idea of owning a PS3.
  • The Xbox 360 stays happily selling consoles through all of this.

So who’s going to win? Stop avoiding the freaking question.

All right, all right! Well seeing as this data comes from people who currently do give a damn about videogames we could say that among the current core gaming crowd it will go down like this:

  1. Xbox 360
  2. Wii
  3. PS3

But thats only good for the western world, Japan might end up looking more like:

  1. PS3
  2. Wii
  3. Xbox 360

But what if Nintendo does deliver on making your grandpa play with his Wii? (oh wait Pfizer already did that) Well then just like with the PSP/DS, put Nintendo on top because all those people searching for the BMW will settle the Volkswagen and get a Wii on the way home.

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2 Replies to "Trend Study: The console wars"

  1. meatpopsicle says:

    I think you should use the keyword “Revolution/Wii” instead of just “Wii”

  2. Thing is, revolution as a non-gaming keyword is a big part of that keyword’s data.


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